Opinion: Closure of LFB stations

So just yesterday (on the 9th January 2014), the London Fire Brigade closed ten fire stations in London, so I thought it would be quite apt to write some of my opinions of this after writing a dissertation analysing the incident calls of the LFB. In the dissertation I decided to write quite objectively and in a way more focused on using methods to visualise the incident call out data set and not to probe too much in the political and socioeconomic factors. It was more of a starting point for a “before and after” study which would capture the existing conditions, some relevant contextual information and to build some form of visual analytical tool to  make some form of logical assessment of what it was like before policy had been applied. A lot more could of been done, but I have a habit of optimising my results according of effort needed (in other words I did what I felt was enough and I was holding down a part time job at the same time as writing the dissertation).

My actual personal opinion of the policy to close stations, is in terms of social implications to society as a perceived risk. The driving assurances the government, the London Mayor and the LFEPA is that because incidents are falling we require less firefighters and stations, if it was a simple allocation task I wouldn’t really of thought much about it but when its a spatial allocation task…. well that’s not so simple. This works on one important problem, getting to a fairly random location from set station sites. Statistically speaking if you need to dispatch emergency response from a set of 4 stations in comparison to 3 stations, you will receive a better response from the set of 4 stations, this makes absolute sense to anyone regardless of your level of understanding for spatial complexity, so when you are met with this statement:

“With ten London fire stations set to close this Thursday, 9 January, the Chairman of the London Fire and Emergency Planning Authority (LFEPA), James Cleverly, said today that Londoners will continue to be safe and receive the fastest emergency response in the capital, if not the UK.”

This seems unlikely to me, the only real case I would submit to that being plausible is if the remaining stations each were equipped with fire trucks which were so smart and faster that they could better reach incidents then it might be workable (or better yet squadrons of fire helicopter trucks). Let alone the latter part of the statement, “receive the fastest response in the capital, if not the UK”, well to be quite frank if that is relative to the capital of just London then if you had one station in the London that would still be the fastest response because it is the only response!  As for most parts of the UK, those towns and cities have a lower density of fire station to coverage area and if the capital had 50 station it would probably still have a faster response than other towns and cities in the UK. The truth of this statement holds but in actual consideration of before and after, you will get a slower response than before.

Now, let us analysis the initial reasoning that the fewer incidents means we need fewer stations and pick at this idea for a moment to see if this is understated and actually would work. The easiest way to do so is to think in terms of two monthly scenarios where:

First Month we have 400 call outs addressed by 4 stations.

Second Month we have 300 call outs addressed by 3 stations.

Does it make sense that the average response time in the first month is the same as the second month? It seems on the face of it, in relative ratios that 400 calls to 40 stations = 100 calls per station and 30 calls to 3 stations = 100 calls that well most of it stayed the same so does this mean we have a better or as good a service in this case? The answer though is no, as we do not consider that the size of the spatial area covered by these stations are the same as before. The second month was not covering 75% of the area of the first month, so the response rate is actually going to increase on average. We also ignore the actual network placement of each station in our example here as there isn’t any particular spatial optimisation going on, a true restructuring to best minimise the effect of station closure of a set number of stations will be better served by redeploying station sites to make up for the missing stations as shown below. This will help to optimise how long it takes for a call out to be reached by the emergency response.

Area Comparison

What happens though is that when we close a station without optimising, a quadrant of the first diagram will become an area which will have much weaker response as well as possibly causing greater queues when station resources are the same or less (in reality there are less total fire trucks than before!). These are problems of spatial allocations which actually mean that by decreasing number of sites, even if you maintain the full number of trucks and firefighters as before, the average response will always increase as long as the stations are not operating at full capacity 100% of the time (which they are not).

So….. it won’t be any surprise to those with some level of spatial comprehension if our emergency response time will increase. So what happens then….? Will it be the case that stations be reopened or that new ones be built to replace those when response times increases? Well that will likely be a political problem rather than a spatial one, as was the criteria of the initial proposal for policy change to reduce spending.

My response obviously seems to be against the policy, but not because I feel that is appears flawed but the real problem is that we have a very different situation than the original fire stations network was set up. This spatial allocation task has changed over the years, the road network has grown, congestion levels have changed, population increased and building density has increased. A real forward thinking policy would redevelop and redeploy against the primary issue of how to optimise the task of reaching incidents from a stationary network of sites. This means we really need to improve on the technology being utilised such as more efficient travel systems (SATNAVs and faster speed limits and better trucks/vehicles) or perhaps into more mobile setups like “footloose” fire stations that can be redeployed. Maybe the government could get a logistics delivery company to optimise a brand new station network for them instead? Or better yet… Flying London Fire Brigade drones might just do the trick!

Augmented Reality + Heritage Conservation

dancklam:

An interesting use of augmented reality moving from an initial project we did to augment over a map, we now augmented a physical model. The physical model was created by Billy Dickinson at Central Saint Martins of 19th Century Bloomsbury. To add layers over the physical model we created our application with Unity and Vuforia and incorporated some RAF flyover imagery from the English Heritage Archives from the 1930s and a photorealistic 3D model of 21st Century Bloomsbury, courtesy of Blom UK.

 

The result is that we have various methods of representations across three centuries to compare against for the same area. I find it somewhat difficult to really explain the idea behind this exhibit based solely on the idea of conservation because it also has a contrast in technology as an aspect. The whole exhibit focuses on using the latest digital technology and using them to simulate or mock up what could of been and how things currently are represented in digital form.

 

Originally posted on :

We (Kostas, Daniel Lam and I ) have finally finished an augmented reality based app for an exhibit at the “Almost Lost: London’s Buildings Loved and Loathed” exhibition organised by English heritage at Quadriga Gallery, Wellington Arch. The event ( http://goo.gl/Qq6twI ) is going to be open until 2nd Feb – if anyone is interested in the architectural conservation history of london.

Our work in the exhibit was to build an AR app which adds animations (smoke,people, carriages) to a physical model and also augments it with the current day 3D buildings in the same area and RAF imagery. Screen Shots of the app (in the making) are below. The press coverage of the event can be seen at http://goo.gl/DtPG60 andhttp://goo.gl/OvQvMT .

Credits: 3D model of Bloomsbury by Blom

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Visualising the London Fire Brigade Incidents

As a round up to a year of study at UCL studying a master, I had to undertake a dissertation, taking the suggestion of my supervisor and an interest in the Fire Service (as my brother is a fire fighter), I found the openly available data from the LFB quite a helpful resource and based my dissertation on it. It is quite an interesting issue, firstly as a case of using data for driving policy decision and secondly as a topical issue which data has a role of addressing. Data is one of those abstract concepts which is not very well defined but we generally it is a form of evidence of something that has happened in some way or form from our society.

Firstly the data itself is a highly detailed and fairly large just about making it difficult to process with anything less than 8GB RAM. It shows the various call outs that the fire brigade was requested to by calls and documents the type of incidents and the journeys to the incident from the station. This data is comes from two primary LFB data sets being the incident data and the mobilisation records you can find at the London Data store (if you need more recent data you will need to make an FOI request to the LFB, who will subsequently update those sources). The data is uploaded to a postgresql database for storage and ease to query the data for visualisation purpose where any sizeable data driven visualisation really needs a robust backend storing large data sets and of various types of data.

 

Here created in processing is the busiest day for 2012 sped up:

 

I particular chose this day just to emphasis a maximum capacity which highlights the most stretched capacity the service will receive, this to me is a particularly important point as deriving the capacity from a mean use will not be good in the social context as what is the point of having a response service that cannot due with disaster level incidents and maintain excellent service? An interesting note is that the majority of calls were to flood incidents, something not primary to fire response which somewhat shows a change in the usage of our services.

As the primary output, I decided to use Omniscope to visualise and deploy the output as it was able to combine the traditionally GIS output with interactivity, as well as facilitate the use the extract, transform and load function of the software to process. I am particularly fond of approaches to data visualisation which actually maintains the level of depth and access to raw data and found this can communicate detail which may be missing.

http://my.visokio.com/uploads/LFB_Incidents_and_Mobilisations/

The research does not really aim to tell whether or not the policy is good or bad, or even if we need more or less fire response. It is supposed really create an environment to cast a critical view and one that is objective. Hence the aspect of producing a interactive detailed visualisation and a back end database behind it being quite handy.

 

Here’s a poster I made for the UCL Bartlett Postgraduate MRes conference (very briefly going over it):

MRES POSTER DLAM

Future of Visualisations

After completing projects and nearing the end of my year of study of analysing and visualising data, there has been quite a change in the world of data and the internet. Just a year ago I remember seeing the first Facebook network graph but now there is a story every week of some amazing visual spatial graphic, the most recent being this creation from WeAreData from Betc & Ubisoft:

http://wearedata.watchdogs.com/start.php?locale=en-EN&city=london

This concept of a hyper-connected world, big data, real time APIs, analytics and smart cities are fascinating areas which blur the distinction between the real world and that of the digital world, something explored through technologies of mobile phones, tablets and augmented reality. Future release of the Google Glass will help to drive this idea of going forward and the methods of visualising this cyber world will become increasingly common. Google themselves aren’t just looking at nifty bits of hardware but also their Google maps are receiving a revamp with more API options to make visualising spatial data more easier and more visually appealing as well.

My course mates and I have been able to explore a range of these and have created projects using augmented reality + Unity, javascript in Google Maps and Processing. All with the sole purpose of visualising spatial data in very different ways, whilst I have learnt so much, this has opened up a whole new world of even more things to learn.

UCL IRIS data & Google Maps: http://balaspa.comuf.com/

UCL IRIS data & Processing: http://balaspa.50webs.com/mappingiris/

Augmented Reality and Unity Map:

What is most interesting I have found is there huge gap in what is being used in an analytical sense and what is just for visual appeal. Some of the most intriguing examples such as WeAreData is developed by computer game developers solely on an idea from their upcoming release of Watchdogs ( a game about a computer hacker). It may not be the most academic or professional viewpoint to take but  the best examples are from computer games pioneering some of the most unique visual maps out there, here’s another upcoming title Tom Clancy’s Division which features concepts of augmented reality, hovering drones and technologies which are partially available in the real world. There really is something there that computer games have to offer which seems to be ahead of every other area of mapping, data visualisation and analytics which professional bodies and businesses just aren’t able to do and could be an avenue for analytical methods to change drastically. Perhaps we all will need to start hiring game developers to make that impact in communicating the data and information.

UCLive – A Live Map for a Living Campus

A separate blog for my involvement in a group project for my MRes course. This project was to create a living campus in an app and bring live data into a mobile environment.

Added:

A little context, this project aims to visualise some of the increasing amounts of geolocated data found in APIs and is delivered in through an interactive method of an application for mobile devices. It demonstrates a proof of concept which is increasingly being adopted, when technology like smart phones and the upcoming Google glass will open the way to augmented reality. Our app looks to find a more familiar and practical purpose which could help users in their every day activity.

UCLive – A Live Map for a Living Campus.

 

A Simple ABM in Unity – UCL Campus

In the quest to create a living city scene, this is the first model created which features some moving agents. A simple 3D scene was set up by downloading a set of available colladae files from the Trimble warehouse and imported as assets into Unity 3D. This uses a collection of UCL’s main campus buildings as the scene and each part of the model must then have mesh colliders added in Unity to give a physical state in Unity.

Agents are then populated in this by writing a C# script and attached to simple agent models (just capsules are used). The agents are in this case using Raycast physics in Unity to determine objects near the agent and the agent will move in straight lines and avoid obstacles and other agents.

CSharp

C# Scripting the agents were primarily done by repeating the Unity simple AI tutorials by steamisM50 on youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL01BCED12B50834A1

A Data Visualisation competition

Data visualisation software company Visokio is holding a competition to raise interest in their neat piece of software Omniscope and offering a valuable license key as a prize (worth £2500). Runner up has a choice of an Amazon gift voucher or hand-made chocolates from Harrods.

The license key is quite a valuable asset which I am sure many of Visokio’s customers will vouch for (see my review of their software).

About the competition (30th May 2013 deadline): 

http://forums.visokio.com/discussion/2062/idea-dashboard-design-competitions

They would like data enthusiasts to design a dashboard style interactive report using their software Omniscope using any data of your choice. The criteria they are looking for in their dashboard design competition are:

- Problem-solving and informative story-telling using Omniscope
- Black belt technique: use of both transformation and visualisation tools
- Style: most beautiful interactive dashboard/presentation

The software:

You can download the software for free with 28 days trial, enough to have a go at this competition!

http://www.visokio.com/mad

BTW, Omniscope is more than a data visualisation tool as I first stated, it excels in various aspects as well as being very user friendly with a graphic user interface and data manager tool (like ArcGIS’s model builder) for those less technically-orientated.

  • Data management and processing
  • Analysis
  • Data publishing
  • Mapping tool

Here is an example of an Omniscope visualisation report I have created in the past which shows some of the things that the software is capable of. To run the report simply save it in your documents folder and launch their online viewer from the website,

Download this file to documents: Example report

Run with web viewer: http://www.visokio.com/kb/webstart (saves as a .jnlp file, this runs on Java so you may need to install this)

Then select “Open File” to run the report.

Alternatively, install the trial software and run it with that.

Images of the report, though has no interactivity so it’s pretty dull:

Screenshot (32)

 

Screenshot (34)

 

Screenshot (33)

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